Increasing pediatric influenza vaccination rates may reduce health care burden

A modeling study evaluating pediatric influenza vaccination rates suggests that increasing immunization coverage among children could substantially reduce healthcare utilization and disease burden in the United States. The findings, presented at the Pediatric Academic Societies (PAS) 2026 Meeting, highlight the relationship between vaccination uptake and downstream impacts on outpatient visits, hospitalizations, and mortality.

Influenza continues to pose a significant annual burden among children aged 6 months to 17 years. Despite the availability of vaccines, pediatric immunization rates have remained below national targets. Investigators from CSL Seqirus used a dynamic, age-stratified transmission model to estimate how varying vaccination rates influence healthcare resource utilization during both high- and low-incidence influenza seasons.

The model incorporated historical influenza seasons representing high incidence (2017-2018) and low incidence (2011-2012), along with vaccine effectiveness estimates derived from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data. Four immunization scenarios were assessed: 50%, 55%, 60%, and 70% vaccination coverage.

At approximately 50% pediatric vaccination coverage—reflecting current US rates—the model projected substantial healthcare utilization. During a high-incidence season, estimates included more than 4.4 million outpatient visits, 59,000 hospital admissions, and 234 pediatric deaths. Peak healthcare demand included approximately 14,000 acute care hospital beds and 2,000 intensive care unit (ICU) beds. In a low-incidence season, projections included 1.5 million outpatient visits, 18,000 hospitalizations, and 70 deaths, with corresponding reductions in hospital and ICU bed occupancy.

Increasing pediatric influenza vaccination rates to 70%, consistent with Healthy People 2030 targets, was associated with marked reductions in disease burden. During a high-incidence season, the model estimated prevention of approximately 2.2 million outpatient visits, more than 30,000 hospital admissions, and 123 pediatric deaths. In a low-incidence season, increases in vaccination coverage were projected to prevent nearly 1.4 million outpatient visits, 15,783 hospitalizations, and 63 deaths.

“These findings underscore the broader consequences of the continued decline in pediatric influenza vaccination rates—not only for children, but for the healthcare system as a whole,” said Joaquin Mould Quevedo, PhD, global health economics and value strategy senior director at CSL Seqirus. “Lower vaccination uptake among children is associated with increased healthcare visits and hospitalizations and can accelerate influenza transmission across age groups, placing additional strain on healthcare resources. This trend is particularly concerning following the 2024/25 US influenza season, which was marked by 293 reported pediatric deaths, the highest number since reporting began.”

The findings also emphasize the potential system-level benefits of improved vaccination coverage. Reductions in outpatient visits and hospital admissions may help alleviate seasonal strain on pediatric healthcare infrastructure, particularly during high-incidence influenza periods when hospital capacity can be limited.

The study authors conclude that achieving higher vaccination rates could improve healthcare system resilience while reducing preventable morbidity and mortality among children. By quantifying the potential impact of increased immunization, the model provides estimates that may inform public health planning and vaccination strategies.

References

1. Pediatric Academic Societies. New study examines impact of pediatric influenza vaccination rates on U.S. healthcare resource utilization. Press release. April 24, 2026.

2. Nguyen V, Mould-Quevedo JF. Modeling the impact of pediatric influenza vaccination rates on U.S. healthcare resource utilization. Presented at: Pediatric Academic Societies (PAS) 2026 Meeting; April 24-27, 2026; Boston, MA.